As election day approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle to become only the second Democrat in over four decades to secure North Carolina vote. Polls consistently show a tight race, with former President Donald Trump holding a slight lead according to the latest averages. Just a day remains until voters decide.
Poll Highlights
In the most recent FiveThirtyEight average, Trump is ahead by a slim margin of 1%, echoing the results of Monday’s Emerson College/The Hill poll, which shows Trump at 49% and Harris at 48% (within a 3.3% margin of error). Additional polls reflect this neck-and-neck trend, including a New York Times/Siena survey that places Harris ahead by two points, 48%-46%, but contrasts with a Morning Consult poll showing Trump leading 49%-47%. A CNN/SSRS poll released on Thursday even shows Harris leading slightly at 48%-47% among likely voters, though it’s within the margin of error.
Wednesday’s Fox News poll puts Trump ahead, with 49% to Harris’s 47%, while a Cooperative Election Study indicates Trump has a two-point lead, 50%-48%, among likely voters. Despite the variations, most surveys agree the race is close, with each candidate polling within a narrow margin of the other.
Shifting Perspectives and Key Trends
Back in August, The Cook Political Report adjusted North Carolina’s status from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” driven by Harris’s strong showing in the polls. This status shift indicates the state’s evolving political landscape and Harris’s growing competitiveness in the region. Historically, North Carolina leans right, voting for only one Democratic presidential candidate—Barack Obama in 2008—since 1980.
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, known as the “research triangle,” has contributed to North Carolina’s shift. This rapidly growing area is seeing a steady influx of highly educated newcomers, a trend often associated with Democratic support. Between 2020 and now, the state’s population has grown by 5.6%, boosting a base that often leans toward the left. In this area alone, the number of residents with bachelor’s degrees—a key Democratic demographic—has climbed by 1.4 million over the last thirty years.
Potential Impact of Scandals on Trump Support
One area to watch is whether controversies surrounding North Carolina GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, could influence Trump’s standing. Robinson, endorsed by Trump, has been entangled in allegations surrounding offensive comments he reportedly made in the past, which could sway undecided voters. While Democratic candidate Josh Stein now leads Robinson by a notable margin, polls suggest this hasn’t impacted Trump’s numbers. Historically, presidential candidates often remain unaffected by down-ballot issues.
Electoral Stakes
North Carolina holds 16 electoral college votes, one of the most coveted totals in this cycle a state tied with Georgia for eighth place in electoral power. If Harris wins, political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Index gives her a 90% chance of taking the election overall; conversely, a Trump win here would strongly position him to claim the electoral college majority.
Despite Changing Demographics, GOP Holds Legislative Power
While North Carolina’s demographics continue to trend toward a Democratic base, Republicans hold a supermajority in the state legislature, enabling them to override any vetoes from Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. This dynamic underscores the complexity of North Carolina’s shifting political landscape, making it one of the key states to watch as the 2024 presidential race unfolds.
